Just as I put my neck on the line last season, I am ready to set myself up for failure by predicting how each Top 12 finalist will finish in the current season. Yes, people are still recovering from the shock that Alex Lambert and Lilly Scott are no longer contenders for the title (I'm not one of them), but there's never been a better time to throw your hat in the ring and predict away.
From the Top 24 until now I've correctly predicted four out of 12 eliminations, so I'm batting .250 to date. When looking at who would make the Top 12 at the outset of the Top 24, however, I pegged 8-12 finalists correctly. Last season, I did not correctly pick a single finalists' placing among the Top 13 at the outset of the finals, which kind of stings. Hopefully this time around it goes better.
After giving the scenarios careful thought, you can read my predictions below.
The Top 12 of American Idol: Season 9 (ordered by predicted place of elimination)
12th-place finalist
>Lacey Brown
Lacey has made it here thanks to her southern, country appeal, because her vocals sure didn't earn her a spot among this group. Add to this the fact that she will have to take on something originally sung by The Rolling Stones this week and Lacey has a recipe for disaster. She does have a cute personality and seems really sweet but sweetness doesn't always cut it in this competition.
11th-place finalist:
>Tim Urban
Tim made it into the Top 12 thanks to a really strong performance this past Wednesday, but now that he's accomplished the all important goal of making it into the finals, his days on the show are numbered. Tim and Aaron cannot remain in this competition while the other one is still in contention, and Aaron's country twang will beat out Tim's "looks" faster than you can say "hallelujah." He might get lukewarm praise for his first two performances but the critiques won't do much for Tim because unlike Kris Allen last season, his fan base isn't going to get much bigger. Still, 11th place ain't half bad for a last minute replacement.
10th-place finalist:
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Paige Miles
Paige managed to evade elimination throughout all three semifinal rounds despite my consistent predictions to the contrary. After using her rock edge to pleasantly surprise America on one of The Rolling Stones' tracks, she will get lost in the shuffle and by Top 10 week she will not be able to stand up against a wave of strong competition, especially from the remaining girls. Think of her as this season's Lisa Tucker.
9th-place finalist:
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Aaron Kelly
Aaron is a nice kid and all, but he can't compete with the majority of these guys. His age works against him and his lower register isn't fully developed, not to mention he lacks a good sense of pitch (I'm starting to sound like Randy here). What he has going for him is the whole country thing, which many Idol voters love, but unless he gets to really shine on country night (assuming it happens prior to Top 9 week), the thin ice he's skating on will shatter.
8th-place finalist:
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Lee DeWyze
Lee is a hard one to call, because he's certainly giving off a dark horse vibe, but at the same time he could be overlooked fairly easily. His main competition is Andrew Garcia, since they're on a similar playing field when looking at the rest of the guys' field (Casey James is head and shoulders above the rest of the guys). If he doesn't go out by Top 8 week, he will probably go all the way to Top 4 because he'll pick up a lot of other guys' votes. But he is pretty polarizing for some reason, so eighth place seems like a perfect place for Lee to bow out at.
7th-place finalist:
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Katie Stevens
Once one of this season's favorites to take the crown (and my personal pick to win at the outset of the Top 24), Katie has unfortunately now been relegated to third string on the girls' team. Despite majorly disappointing showings to date, Katie still has time to turn it around, but considering she lacks a few attributes that some of the more established artists like Didi Benami and Crystal Bowersox have (like guitar playing skillz), Katie has a big hill to climb before she can get back into contention. You can tell Kara and Simon really want her to stick around for as long as possible, but they can only do so much before her fan base becomes overwhelmed.
6th-place finalist:
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Michael Lynche
Big Mike has been wowing everyone as of late (and by "everyone" I mean the judges and Ryan) and seems like the guy to beat at this point. His touching sob story still gets mentioned every week, and his vocal showings have been pretty solid. Therefore, he will surely jump the hurdles at the beginning of the finals, but once the finalists get down to the nitty gritty at the halfway point, he will have to stand out as a marketable, viable recording artist, not just a performer with a big voice. This is nothing against Mike, because he is undeniably talented, but he just won't be able to have the success that other finalists could have if given a record deal. Therefore, sixth place seems like a very fitting spot to depart on.
5th-place finalist:
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Didi Benami
Didi was one of the early favorites to win, and unlike Katie it seems she still has a fighting chance to succeed in this goal. But her chances of being victorious hinge on whether or not she can make songs her own. Didi is one of those contestants who thrives on personalizing her performances, and if she is weighed down by comments from the judges claiming she "played it too close to the original" or "didn't spice it up," she won't make it too far. I do believe Didi will continue with "Terrified"-like performances, though, so that should be enough to get her to the halfway point. But once again, the competition is just stacked too high and she probably won't be able to outlast finalists like Crystal or even Andrew.
4th-place finalist:
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Andrew Garcia
As mentioned earlier, Andrew is a wildcard. He could either drop out around Top 8 where I'm thinking Lee will end up, or he could go as far as Top 4 thanks to his early strength. If he can avoid the mention of his now annoying "Straight Up" performance from Hollywood Week and if he can start picking the right songs, Andrew should be just fine for a Top 4 finish. Andrew will have help now that real themes are on us, so he will have more guidance of what kinds of songs he should be taking on, so it's unlikely we'll have to be subjected to another "Genie In a Bottle." He won't win (no guy will), but he'll finish just fine for an early favorite.
3rd-place finalist:
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Crystal Bowersox
And then there was Crystal. It's no surprise that Crystal is supposed to win this season, and she very well could. But what I've learned from past seasons is rarely does the early front runner win the whole thing (Season 4 was the exception to the rule). Therefore, it's usually one of the "very good but still has potential to grow" contestants who wins, and Crystal is certainly not one of those. She is a bona fide artist and could go out on her own right now and attract good size audiences on a tour if she wanted to. She's like a caged canary with nowhere yet everywhere to go (and judging by her attitude and general demeanor last night, she wasn't too thrilled about making it into the Top 12). Thus, Crystal will finish as second-runner-up and not runner-up, because as Season 3 showed us, audiences do not like female-female finales. This will be more than enough for her to be considered a "real" artist and yet still have a shot at doing will with an album.
Runner-up:
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Casey James
Casey is more than the guy of Kara's fantasies. He is a rough yet smooth vocalist and is the most believable artists among the guys. He has all the ingredients to be both a solo artist or the lead vocalist of a band a la
Chris Daughtry. And despite all of these factors, the best Casey can hope to finish is second place. That may not seem fair, but really is a girls' year, and Casey is anything but a girl. He will seem more appealing as runner-up anyway, even though predecessors like
David Cook and even
Kris Allen have made winning
Idol "cool" for guys. But as long as he sticks to performances more like "Heaven" and less like his indulgent showings, Casey should sail through to the finale.
Winner:
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Siobhan Magnus
Siobhan Magnus will win Season 9 of
American Idol. That's all it comes down to. She has wide appeal, gaining fans in all demographics thanks to her quirky yet friendly personality. She has youth, which is always a plus. She has a unique name, something more winners have had (Ruben, Fantasia, Taylor, Jordin, Kris) than didn't have (Kelly, Carrie, David). And most importantly, she has a killer voice. Siobhan doesn't come off as a polished professional, nor does she come off as an immature karaoke singer, and the producers are definitely looking for someone (some girl) who will fit this bill. Siobhan in her wildest dreams probably doesn't think she has a shot at the title, but she will get the hint sooner or later when she sees her friends picked off one by one as the weeks go by. At this point, it seems wrong that anyone but her will win this season, but stranger things have happened as we all know. For now, take this prediction to the bank.
And there we have it. Each week I will compare my original predictions with how things turn out in reality in addition to making revised predictions depending on the circumstances each week. (Photos courtesy of AmericanIdol.com).
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