Analysis: Paula's seeing the future, baby!

In the moment of confusion seen 'round the world, whether it was on live television, audio stream or via IDOL LIVE, Paula Abdul suffered an embarrassment that will surpass her "fortune cookie" comment in Season 5 and her infected finger episode in Season 3.

Although it is true that Idol fans love Paula for her wackiness and would not want to see her replaced as much as they may complain about her, many are now questioning the legitimacy of this show. Yes, there have been many questions raised in the past about whether the show is rigged or not, but this time the media will be less than kind to Paula and the show's producers.

To start off, the whole layout of the show was a disaster and rushed, so that right there opened the door to a chance of a screw up. From backstage accounts by EW.com, it seemed the "firing squad comments" at the end of round one were either poorly planned, or not planned at all, so that added a hurdle for the judges, specifically Paula. Now, to start off her comments she said "Oh gosh, we've never had to write these things down...fast enough," which gives off the perception that she had written down the comments during the first five performances. But how is that possible when she was up dancing during a few of the performances? Besides, she had already written something for Jason Castro's second song, so that excuse does not stick.

Over the course of the show's seven-year history, there have been many tidbits released about the extent to which the judges participate in the dress rehearsals, and Simon was famously quoted as saying he "doesn't listen during the live performances" because he formulates his opinion during the dress rehearsals. But Paula is known for showing up late, sometimes only minutes before the live show begins. So unless she sat through the entire dress rehearsal last night, that excuse has a tough time standing up as well.

This leaves another option open: did Paula make write her comments before seeing even the dress rehearsal? Was she handed her note cards by Nigel or another production member? Or was it just an honest mistake?

Personally, I don't think it is a conspiracy. Sure, the show has seen its fair share of controversy and mess ups, but this instance was probably just Paula getting frazzled and confused at the change of schedule and she wanted to make sure she had something to say so that the five performances did not go by as a blur (as they did for most viewers). Her nerves got in the way and she tripped up, but I don't think it has anything to do with what is in her Coke cup. Still, the slip up was a huge one, and Ryan and Paula will try to explain away what happened with some elaborate story. If Simon's "eye roll" at Chris Richardson had to be apologized for last season, there is no way they can afford to ignore this.

And the fact that Jason had to go out there and perform a song he already knew he would be getting negative comments for was a little on the unfair side. He definitely did a number on his confidence, because his first performance was much better than his second.

But I think the real story here is how Paula tried to cover up her gaffe by saying her comments were for David Cook, and then saying he was "amazing." This was out of desperation after she knew what she had done, and was not thinking of what the media et al would say about her lame cover up the next day. It is understandable, but still unprofessional. She should have apologized to Jason, saying she had written down comments from the dress rehearsal and it would have been less awkward.

Again, it is up to Nigel as to what kind of approach Idol takes tonight in addressing last night's events, and hopefully he does the right thing. The show cannot afford any more of these situations if it wants to sustain its waning spot on top.