Analysis: "Light On" doesn't meet high expectations

David Cook's opening week sales of 109,035 for his second single, "Light On," are underwhelming. There's no way of getting around it considering Cook's upcoming release is one of the most highly anticipated from an Idol in a long time. But before you Word Nerds jump in defense, consider the following: this is only because some are choosing to make the release into a competition, which is nothing new in the Idol world. By establishing this climate of competition with David Archuleta, whose "Crush" opened with 166,247, it was almost impossible for expectations to be met, which is the reason the sales do in fact seem underwhelming. And this goes both ways of course, as with any battle.

But when put into perspective, things do not look nearly as bad. Here are some comparable first week sales of opening singles for Idol champs from 2007:

Kelly Clarkson, "Never Again" 106,809 (#4 on Hot Digital Songs)
Carrie Underwood, "So Small" 70,808 (#6 on Hot Digital Songs)
Jordin Sparks, "Tattoo" 33,764 (#22 on Hot Digital Songs)

By looking at these numbers it is easy to see that "Light On" is not nearly as disappointing as some are making it out to be. Granted, RCA was probably trying its best to boost the numbers when they received early figures last week, which helps explain its behavior in choice of promotional approach. At least some dots are starting to connect.

The fact that RCA feels it needs to try its hardest to make sure the first week sales of "Light On" are in line with what many had expected just underlines the current attitude in not only the music industry, but the Idol world as well. There is no better proof than the fact that the label is milking Cook's Idol appeal for all its worth, which is not a bad thing at all, but still shows that the connection is serving an important component in his marketing as fans await his album.

Another well established factor that contributed to the lower-than-expected sales is the amount of competition the single has faced. "Light On" was one of five major digital single releases for the week, which stands as one of the busiest weeks for the 2008 calendar. In these tough economic times, there is only so much money to go around, and if it comes down to purchasing Nickelback's "Gotta Be Somebody," Christina Aguilera's "Keeps Getting Better" or "Light On," not every song is going to get the same sales as each one might have generated had there been less competition. It's not like this is the week after Christmas.

And keep in mind, "Light On" has not even gone for adds yet at any radio format (it will hit Hot AC on Mon., Oct. 13 and Top 40 and Rock next Tues., Oct. 14), so the fact that is has received 519 spins and a total audience impression of 1.838 million to date is very respectable. As for its position on iTunes at the moment (#21), that is something that will fluctuate over the next few weeks before Cook's album hits shelves. Nothing should be read into it unless it fails to stabilize by the time the single starts making substantial gains in airplay.

So for any Cook fans that are going around pouting about "Light On" selling 109k, cheer up. This is about longevity, not first week sales. Just ask Jordin Sparks. And for any Arch fans that are going around bashing Cook and making this into a competition, be careful what you wish for. Competition is all fun and good, but it is meaningless in the larger scope of things.