IDOL LIVE predix: How the Top 13 will place (and who will win)

After correctly predicting eight out of 13 finalists from the Top 36 before any of them took the stage for America to make its judgments and predicting 10 of 13 for the finalists after each group of finalists performed, including Thursday's wild card.

Now it's time to get down to business, as the much trickier task of pegging how each finalist will finish in the Idol horse race must be performed. There are a few good possibilities to consider in making this forecast, but one wrong placing and the whole prediction could be derailed.

After giving the scenarios careful thought, you can read my predictions below.

The Top 13 of American Idol: Season 8 (ordered by predicted place of elimination)

13th-place finalist:
>Megan Corkrey

Megan (is her last name now Joy?) has all the makings of a Melissa McGhee run on Idol. She gets into the Top 13 by a hair on a less than stellar performance (at the hands of the judges, mind you) and she has a unique voice that is pretty polarizing. Couple these facts with handing Megan the tough task of tackling the music of Michael Jackson this week and we have a carbon copy of Melissa's elimination in Season 5.

12th-place finalist:
>Michael Sarver

Assuming this week is a double elimination to get the show back on schedule (unless they're gunning for a dreaful Top 3 finale this time around), this should be the last time we hear from Michael until the finale. Michael is one of those finalists that would not have made the Top 13 had he been placed in a more competitive group, or maybe if he had been just placed in one of the two later groups. He is unfortunately stuck in the finals now, and will be handed a heavy amount of criticism until he is sent packing. Michael's a nice oil rigger, but he's not right for this show. If this week does not see two contestants being given their plane tickets home, expect to see a departure next Wednesday.

11th-place finalist:
>Jasmine Murray

Another wild card pick that many could not explain, Jasmine will skate by the first week or two thanks to the fact that there are weaker competitors, but her time will run up quick because she just does not have the likability factor that many others have. Not to mention she's not nearly the best vocalist, and that fact will remain the same no matter how many times Kara uses the c-word (commercial) to describe her.

10th-place finalist
>Jorge Nunez

Thanks to a surprisingly strong performance Jorge was able to secure a spot in the Top 13 over more probable (and more deserving) contestants, which is a great testament to his ability to connect with audiences. That said, now that he has got the go-ahead to bring his accent back, Jorge's singing will be affected (whether or not this is a positive thing is up to the voting public). Not to mention Grand Ole Opry week is going to be a mess for him.

9th-place finalist:
>Kris Allen

Kris has a lot of things going for him. Ask the girls and they'll most likely say they like him for his looks (or they'll do a good job trying to deny that's the real reason they like him), he gave a great performance in the semifinals and has been able to overcome the tough task of impacting audiences after little to no air time before reaching the Top 36. The one thing going against him, however, is that he's on a battlefield with stronger performers, which will allow him to go only so far. It is entirely possible that Kris could be a dark horse and make it farther, but I wouldn't bet on it. Still, a ninth-place finish is nothing to sneeze at.

8th-place finalist:
>Alexis Grace

Alexis is caught between a rock and a hard place. She came out strong amid an extremely weak group of girls and made it through in the same way Michael did, whereas if she had been in any other group she probably would not have advanced. She has a nice soulful voice but lacks universal appeal, and could be described as very forgettable. Unless she can muster a showstopper that could elevate her stature for a few more weeks, she will exit the show in eighth place.

7th-place finalist:
>Matt Giraud

Despite Simon's comments about his outfit last Thursday, Matt appeals to the core demographic of this show. He has a style similar to Elliott Yamin's and proved that he can play a mean piano back in Hollywood when he sang "Georgia" by Ray Charles. This will only give him a leg up on other finalists, but it will not be enough to send him past seventh place. Matt will begin to be seen as bland and will suffer from lukewarm critiques from the judges with the exception of Simon, who will lay it on him the second he goes off key.

6th-place finalist:
>Scott MacIntyre

Scott is a really nice guy with an average voice. He is not winning material, and will cause a lot of controversy by making it further than some of the "stronger" vocalists (Kris, Matt). Although it is not fair to compare him to Season 3's John Stevens, Scott will see a similar run, eating up the granny vote and delivering a lot of slow ballads week after week. Still, Scott's ability to finally show off his piano skills onstage will bring a different weapon to his arsenal, which should be enough to propel him into the upper half of the Top 13.

5th-place finalist:
>Allison Iraheta

Allison is different. She's young. And she's got a lot of spunk. These three characteristics alone will be enough to launch her through the first half of the finals. Once things get down to business, though, her distinct vocals will begin to wear and tear after being subjected to "Olivia Newton John week" or "Reggaeton week" (not real themes, just wild guesses) and she will be seen as a two- to three-trick pony. It always helps to have Miley Cyrus' endorsement, but unless Miley sends MySpace bulletins to her fans reminding them to vote for Allison, it probably won't matter much past the Top 5. She will make a name for herself while on the show, but things will come to a close at this point.

4th-place finalist:
>Anoop Desai

Anoop is the one wild card pick that will stand the test of time, making it into the coveted Top 4 thanks to a combination of his soulful vocals and personality (and maybe just because it's fun to hear Ryan and the judges say his name, dog). Despite this, he is really not the stuff winners are made of, and so things will catch up with him when he's left standing next to three performers that are out of his league. Still, this is an excellent showing for a geeky guy from Chapel Hill, and he will take away a lot from his experience, whether or not he decides to pursue music as a career.

3rd-place finalist:
>Adam Lambert

One word that describes Adam quite well is "unique." That is usually a good trait to have when competing on this show, but in his case he is just too unique to win the whole shebang. Adam will deliver spectacles through his performances on a weekly basis, but when it comes down to the nitty gritty, he will not win over enough of the voting public because of his counterculture status. He still should have a successful career on Broadway when all is said and done.

Runner-up:
>Lil Rounds

The much hyped, much talked about Lil would win this show if it were Season 3 or maybe even Season 6, but she can't win Season 8. As already stated by the judges and co., a guy will take the title this season. That rules Lil out, no matter how poised and how consistent she may be. It will still be an exciting finale with her in it, and the judges will love it because they love her. Besides, the finales are always a little more interesting when there are two members of the opposite sex competing against each other. The only thing that could ruin this finale, though, would be if a Top 3 finale was installed to make up for choosing a baker's dozen to represent the finalists, and in that case Lil would have even less of a chance to win it.

Winner:
>Danny Gokey

And then we're left with Danny Gokey. If he can weather the ridiculous "using his dead wife to advance" complaint that's being sloshed around the net at the moment, he will surely fit the bill of an Idol winner. Who can't picture Danny on the stage at the Kodak/Nokia singing an ultra cheesy power ballad with multicolored confetti showering down on a screaming audience? Things that will help Danny make it to this point are overpraise from judges, his knack for choosing the right song and great vocals. Not to mention all the other finalists seem to be saying great things about him as a person. If he does not win, it would not be the biggest surprise, but it really does seem like this is the year of the Gokey, whether we like it or not.

And there we have it. Each week I will compare my original predictions with how things turn out in reality in addition to making revised predictions depending on the circumstances each week. Hopefully things go better than my Top 12 and Top 36 predictions. (Photos courtesy of AmericanIdol.com).