Wednesday, April 22, 2009

IDOL LIVE predix: Top 7 Results, Pt. 2

Tonight's results will be a major turning point that helps hammer across the idea that DianIdol is not the be all, end all, of Idol results spoiling. This season has already been a disaster for the venerable predicting site, but it's not at fault. People just simply do not know how to read the results. They think just because someone is positioned at the top they received the most votes, and freak out every time their favorite is dwelling near the bottom of the chart. This will hopefully wake a few people up for good.

Alright enough wasting time, here is how things will most likely go tonight:

Bottom 3
>Danny, Lil, Matt

Eliminated in 7th Place
>Lil

Eliminated in 6th Place
>Matt

It has yet to be determined how Ryan will go through the results in a double elimination like tonight, but it's a good bet he will bring down the Bottom 3 and knock out the 7th-place finalists from that, leaving the next two lowest vote-getters. From there, he will read which one was next in line in terms of low vote totals, and therefore the sixth-place finisher.

So by following this model, it appears that Lil will finally leave, just as Simon said. Forget the fact that she is listed as the highest vote recipient on DialIdol, forget the whole sympathy factor, forget everything. If Lil could end up in the B3 with a performance in the pimp spot, it would make much more sense for her to leave going first. Who else could logically leave tonight other than her? Even though this show is not always about singing well, there are lines that can be drawn from time to time and tonight will be about who needs to go.

The judges' use of the save last week will be rendered pointless when Matt leaves tonight. He chose a cursed song (LaKisha Jones, anyone?) and did not sound much better than last week. Plus he did not get glowing reviews and that's a bad combination when you're short on fans. The third member of the potential B3 is probably going to be Danny, which will be as close to a shock as we'll get for now. This scare will pump up his fans and guarantee they kick it into gear in time for next week's two hours worth of voting. Although Allison looks to be in trouble tonight, she will be the major beneficiary of Lil's departure, as she could go as far as Top 3 by being the only remaining female in contention.

In my original predictions, I had Matt going home in 7th place and Scott leaving in 6th place, so the former is still a good possibility. Still, I think there's a greater chance he moves up a spot and is the second one eliminated tonight.

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