The next two weeks are busy ones for Idol fans, as David Archuleta's debut album drops on Tues., Nov. 11, while David Cook's debut album follows a week later on Tues., Nov. 18. Both Davids will face stiff competition with the releases and may fail to enter the Billboard 200 chart in their respective first weeks.
Arch will square off against Taylor Swift with her sophomore effort Fearless, which surely will benefit from the release of four singles over the past month to iTunes, which has built up an even greater excitement factor attached to the release.
Cook, on the other hand, will have his own share of problems when his debut hits shelves alongside Nickelback's upcoming Dark Horse and Il Divo's The Promise, both of which have a legitimate shot at coming in at #1. And then there's Beyoncé, whose third album as a solo artist, I Am...Sasha Fierce, drops on the heels of her current hit "If I Were a Boy." To add to the mix, Dido drops Safe Trip Home, but should not be a threat.
Factoring in pre-sales that have been accumulated over the past few weeks, it looks like Cook's album has been able to bank more solely for the fact that it has been out a week sooner and it will have an extra week of pre-sales to work with. Arch's album is currently #20 on iTunes' Top 100 Albums chart and #7 on Amazon.com, while Cook's album is #23 on iTunes and #2 on Amazon.
There are also many different collectors' editions of the two albums, as Arch will have bonus tracks or a special poster for copies at iTunes, Walmart and Kmart, while Cook will have bonus versions available at iTunes and Walmart. Look for multiple purchases by fans as with every Idol release.
So after considering all of the above and the history surrounding album releases by Idol alums in the holiday season, look for big numbers for both. IDOL LIVE predicts David Archuleta will pull in 221k copies in its first week, landing at #2 on the Billboard 200, while David Cook will net 236k copies for a #3 debut on the Billboard 200.
Hopefully these predictions are lower than the actuals, but either way they would be very healthy debuts for both of them.
Sunday, November 9, 2008
IDOL LIVE predix: 'David Archuleta'; 'David Cook'
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3 comments:
how come you predict Cook will sell more but will come in lower on the Billboard 200?
She predicts that Cook will sell more but come in lower on the charts because he has more competition during the week his album is released. Beyonce and Nickelback will more than likely sell more than him, while Archie only has to deal with Taylor Swift.
*facepalm*
I'm a little slow on the uptake sometimes. Thank you!
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